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The latest flash estimates released by the Housing and Development Board (HDB) on Jan 2 revealed that resale flat prices increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly slower than the 2.7% q-o-q growth seen in the previous quarter. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increases in the HDB resale segment.
According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, the flash estimates showed that HDB resale prices grew by 9.6% in 2024, which is double the 4.9% growth recorded in 2023. However, this was still slower than the 10.4% price increase in 2022 and the 12.7% growth in 2021.
The HDB caveat data from data.gov.sg, downloaded at 8.15am on Jan 2, showed a slowdown in price growth for some flat types, notes OrangeTee. For instance, the median price of four-room flats saw a q-o-q increase of 2.5% in the fourth quarter, which is slower than the 3.4% growth in the previous quarter.
Similarly, two-room flats rose by 2% q-o-q in the fourth quarter, which is also slower than the 3.9% growth in the third quarter. Executive flats registered a 1.2% q-o-q price increase in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.7% in the previous quarter. On the other hand, prices for five-room flats grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, which is faster than the 1.2% increase in the third quarter.
Resale volume down 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter of 2024
Resale volume declined by 3.6% y-o-y to 6,314 units in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 6,547 transactions in the same quarter in 2023. It was also down 22.5% q-o-q from 8,142 units in the third quarter of 2024.
Sun attributes the decline in HDB resale transactions primarily to the launch of over 8,500 new flats by HDB in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, with many units in prime and desirable locations. “The attractive features of these flats, such as scenic views and proximity to MRT stations, diverted demand away from the resale market towards the BTO market,” she adds.
Sales also slowed during the year-end school holidays when many Singaporeans tend to travel abroad. Consequently, house viewings and sales activities typically decrease during this period.
However, Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex, attributes the slower pace of growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 to government intervention in August 2024, when the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans was reduced by five percentage points to 75%. “Going by the weaker sales and slower growth in the HDB resale price index in the fourth quarter of 2024, the August 2024 measures are likely to be working through the market,” says Wong. “Meanwhile, the thinner resale volume during the quarter also likely put a drag on prices.”
The total resale volume for 2024 was recorded at 28,876 units, which is 8% higher than the 26,735 units recorded in 2023 and the 27,896 units in 2022. However, it is still lower than the peak of 31,017 units in 2021.
Decline in million-dollar flat transactions in the fourth quarter of 2024
The decline in resale transactions in the fourth quarter of 2024 led to a decrease in million-dollar flat transactions to just 283 units from 331 in the third quarter. Despite the drop, the total number of million-dollar transactions reached a record high of 1,033 units in 2024, notes OrangeTee’s Sun. “The figure is more than double the 469 million-dollar transactions recorded in the previous year,” she says.
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Toa Payoh town led million-dollar resale flat deals in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 58 such transactions – 20 of which were for four- and five-room units at Alkaff Vista in Bidadari Park Drive, which had recently crossed the five-year minimum occupation period (MOP).
“The new classification of Plus and Prime classification BTO flats may have driven more homebuyers to seek out HDB resale homes in central locations,” says Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Singapore. “These buyers are unwilling to accept the resale restrictions such as a 10-year MOP, rental restrictions after MOP, subsidy clawback upon resale and resale income cap on future buyers.”
HDB resale prices expected to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower pace
OrangeTee expects HDB resale prices to continue rising in 2025, but at a slower pace than in previous years. “In many areas, prices have already reached new highs, creating affordability concerns for many potential buyers,” adds Sun.
Furthermore, she notes that the ongoing supply of BTO flats is expected to help moderate price growth in the secondary market. However, the degree of price stabilisation will depend on the number of BTO flats the government plans to release in the upcoming years.
In February 2025, HDB will launch its largest sale of balance flats (SBF) exercise, offering more than 5,500 flats across various towns, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. “Some prospective resale flat buyers have decided to wait to try their luck,” he adds.
Price growth and transaction volume to moderate in 2025
ERA expects resale prices to grow at a more measured pace in 2025 due to a reduced supply of flats reaching MOP, which has been a key driver of price growth in recent years, notes ERA’s Lim. Hence, he anticipates a 3% to 6% growth in HDB resale prices, with 26,000 to 27,000 resale units changing hands by the end of 2025.
PropNex expects the HDB resale market to perform well in 2025, underpinned by healthy housing demand and fewer MOP flats coming on – possibly keeping resale prices firm, says Wong. “Resale flats will continue to enjoy strong buying interest from those with more pressing housing needs, applicants who cannot secure a BTO flat, and families with a tighter housing budget.”
Wong is projecting that HDB resale flat prices may rise 5% to 7% in 2025, supported by a resale volume forecast of 29,000 to 30,000 units.
The supply of BTO flats in 2025 will be further reduced to 17,290 units, about 12% lower than the supply in 2024, notes Huttons’ Lee. “As there is no upfront information on the BTO projects with a shorter waiting time, buyers are likely to go to the resale market,” he reckons.
Lower interest rates may encourage buyers to consider executive condos (EC) or resale condos. “The million-dollar flat market may stabilise in the range of 900 to 1,200 units in 2025,” adds Lee.
Huttons projects that HDB resale flat transactions will end the year at 26,000 to 28,000, with resale flat prices likely to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8%.