In the second quarter of 2024, global real estate returns have finally turned positive after two consecutive years of losses, signaling a potential recovery in the market. The past few years have seen a surge in real estate values due to low interest rates, with global total returns reaching 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 17.8% in the first quarter of 2022 – figures well above long-term averages.
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However, the tightening cycle that followed has erased these gains, bringing real estate values back to 2018 levels worldwide. But it seems that the market correction is nearly complete, making it a promising time for investors to reconsider this asset class. Historically, real estate has provided stable income returns and diversification benefits over the long term, and during recovery periods, it can offer substantial returns. For instance, following the recession of the early 1990s, investors saw a cumulative return of 76% over the next five years.
In the current market, evidence of a turnaround in valuations is starting to emerge. In the second quarter of 2024, global value losses have moderated to 0.74%, the lowest quarterly adjustment in the last two years. With offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate has achieved a positive return of 0.33%, the first positive quarter since the second quarter of 2022. Out of the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, the majority have seen an increase in real estate values for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. Notable markets such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and European countries like the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK all experienced value hikes from the previous quarter. The remaining six markets saw value losses but at a much lesser degree compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Only Australia has recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter compared to the first, with a 4.2% correction that has brought its valuations more in line with its peers. However, changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income, highlighting the importance of considering both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
Overall, total returns for the second quarter of 2024 have been positive in 12 out of the 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index, flat in the US, slightly negative in Ireland, and significantly negative in Australia. Preliminary data from the NCREIF ODCE index has shown that the US total returns have turned positive at 0.25%. With valuations starting to climb back up, we expect this positive trend in total returns to continue.
While global fundraising for real estate investment shows signs of a potential rebound after two slow years, China and Japan may face challenges. In the third quarter of 2024, these two countries accounted for a significant portion of the US$7.5 billion in cross-border inflows in Asia Pacific, with over half coming from global sources in Japan and most from within Asia Pacific in China, particularly from Hong Kong and Singapore. However, both these countries are facing high debt costs and other factors that may hinder a strong recovery in real estate capital inflows. For instance, Western interest in Chinese real estate has declined significantly in recent years due to geopolitical and economic concerns. And despite Beijing’s recent stimulus package, it may take some time for Western investors to return. The Chinese market has also been stagnant due to various risks, such as price dislocation, geopolitical tensions, and lack of liquidity. Furthermore, domestic property issues in China, such as high office vacancies and low rental yields, along with government interventions, continue to dampen investor interest. In Japan, the recent hike in borrowing rates by the Bank of Japan has also reduced the market’s attractiveness, preventing cap rate compression and making it challenging to see an increase in property prices. However, niche sectors like senior housing present opportunities due to Japan’s aging population, with 29% of the population aged 65 and above. These assets may require a consolidation play by investors due to their small size.
Conversely, Australia’s purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market shows potential due to a significant shortage of housing. In cities like Melbourne and Sydney, only 20% of students can be accommodated by universities, compelling the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, the real estate debt market in Australia offers promising risk-adjusted returns, with many developers struggling to secure bank financing for their projects. This presents interesting opportunities in sectors such as logistics or PBSA for long-term growth potential.
With valuations and transaction market pricing stabilizing, it appears that the real estate market is nearing the bottom, but this alone does not necessarily indicate a good time to invest. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. While most developed market central banks have started tapering interest rates, Japan remains an outlier. This has prevented cap rate compression and forced real estate holders in the country to rely on historically low-income yields. However, the pullback in construction activity across sectors is a positive sign for property fundamentals in the medium term. With supply constraints easing, markets with positive demand, driven by factors like population growth or e-commerce, are expected to see increased occupancies and rent growth, leading to higher property values.
While the outlook for global private real estate appears to be improving, not all markets and property types will see the same level of recovery. For instance, the US office market faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment does not seem likely in the near future. This highlights the importance of conducting thorough research and being selective when investing in real estate.
In conclusion, in an uncertain economic and geopolitical climate, there will always be some risks involved in investing, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weighting of real estate in investors’ portfolios has decreased significantly due to a resetting of real estate values and a booming stock market. However, now may be a good time for investors to consider allocating more towards the private real estate market to achieve a balanced portfolio. With its low correlation to other asset classes, stable income returns, and inflation-hedging potential, private real estate remains an appealing option for long-term investors. While there may be some bumps along the way, we believe that the market is on the upswing, presenting potential investment opportunities for savvy investors.…