Thanks to limited supply and strong demand, HDB resale prices continued their upward trend, growing 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth, with the cumulative increase for the year coming in at 9.7%. This is nearly double the 4.9% year-on-year increase witnessed in 2023. According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI, the strong growth in resale prices can be attributed to limited supply, as the number of flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) was low in 2024. This led to a tight supply, driving prices up, especially for newer and larger flats, such as five-room and executive units, that cater to the needs of growing families.Last quarter, five-room flats saw the highest growth in resale prices, with an increase of 2.2% quarter-on-quarter to $754,097, while four-room flats recorded a similar uptick of 2.2% to $652,544. Among the different regions, the Central Area saw the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, followed by Toa Payoh, Tampines, Bishan, and Bedok.Around 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last quarter of 2024, bringing the total number of million-dollar transactions for the year to 1,035. Majority of these transactions took place in mature estates, with Kallang/Whampoa seeing the highest number of such flats being sold at 156 units, followed by Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah.Overall, resale transactions for the market fell by 21.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a total of 6,424 units sold. This was likely due to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. Low interest rates may also have encouraged some home buyers to shift their focus to the private residential or Executive Condominium (EC) market, while others may have opted to ballot for a flat in the Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise held in October last year.Nevertheless, the overall resale volume for 2024 still managed to rise by 8.4% year-on-year, with 28,986 units sold – the highest yearly transaction volume since 2021. Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun were the five most popular towns among buyers in 2024, accounting for about 35.9% of all HDB resale transactions.The number of flats reaching the end of their MOP in 2025 is expected to drop significantly by 41.6% to 6,976 units, compared to 11,952 units in 2024. This is due to the lower number of BTO flats completed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. However, HDB plans to launch over 25,000 new flats this year, comprising 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. Around 3,800 units from the BTO launch will also be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, with a wait time of less than three years. This will help address the increasing demand for housing, with SBF flats being particularly attractive to buyers who prefer to move into a new and ready-to-move-in unit with a shorter waiting time. Sandrasegeran expects resale prices to increase by 3.5% to 5.5%, with transaction volume ranging between 26,000 and 27,000, while Lee predicts a more optimistic growth of 5% to 8% for the year.
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